How to Project Your Launch Revenue in 3 Easy Steps - thelaunchguild.com

Ever wish you had a crystal ball? You know something that will tell you exactly what’s going to happen. A cute little gem to tell you exactly how many sales to expect from your next course launch? What about something that can project your launch revenue for you?

Don’t we all. 

Well, we don’t have a launch crystal ball, but we do have something just as magical. ✨ A launch revenue calculator. ✨ It’s an (almost) foolproof way to project how much revenue you should expect on your next launch. I should know – I use it all the time, both for myself and our launch clients! 

It’s the perfect way to set reasonable expectations for yourself as a course creator, especially if you’re releasing a brand new course or product. Because newsflash! You can’t keep expecting your ENTIRE email list to buy your newest course. You can’t even expect HALF your email list to buy your newest course. We are looking at way smaller numbers than that. We’re talking less than 5% of your email list. 

And I don’t want you to get discouraged, these numbers can always grow! But the data doesn’t lie and we don’t want you to set yourself up for disappointment when really you should be popping champagne and celebrating after your cart closes! 

Follow These Steps to Project Your Launch Revenue

The calculation you’ll see below is based on industry standards for online business, plus we’ve seen it proven to be right (or in the ballpark) over and over again in real-life launches. So if you’ve been beating yourself up because of your single-digit conversion rate, stop. That’s where we’re all at! 

So! 

Let’s take a look at this launch revenue calculator. You’ll be projecting your launch revenue in 3 easy steps. 

Step 1

Get your launch list number. This number is like a virtual guest list. It should only be made up of people you’ll be inviting from your email list to your free webinar/challenge/event and to purchase your offer. This is probably the time you separate the Absolutely Yes’s from the Definitely Not’s. Invite people who will show up. Is it your entire list of subscribers? Or only a portion of them?

This is also why it’s so important to always be growing your audience and list, because in order to have a successful launch, you need a group of people to launch too! This is exactly why we created the Build Your Audience Bootcamp, to help creators build an engaged audience before they release their product.

Step 2

Multiply that number by 1%, 1.5%, 2%. Write it all down and save those numbers. You’ll want to come back to them. 

Step 3

Use these numbers as your Good, Better, and Best enrollment goals. No matter what these numbers are, they’re amazing 🤩 To estimate your actual revenue number, multiply these numbers by your program price and boom! You’re golden.

Example

Here’s an example for a course creator with an email list of 2,000 subscribers and a course they plan to sell for $497: 

Email List: 2,000 Subscribers

1% of 2000 = 20
1.5% of 2000 = 30
2% of 2000 = 40

Launch Enrollment Projections (Sales Goals):
Good: 20 Sales
Better: 30 Sales
Best: 40 Sales

Launch Sales Projections (Course is $497):
Good: $9,940
Better: $14,910
Best: $19,880

See? Easy Peasy! Three easy steps that you can use again and again. 

So for a list of 2000 subscribers who you’ve been emailing regularly and consistently connecting with and providing value to, these goals are a great starting place! It’s also a starting place we’ve seen often with our launch clients. 

20-40 sales and $10k+ in sales is INCREDIBLE. Is it the $100k+ launch that many online gurus say is so “easy”? Definitely not. That’s why we think it’s so important to run this calculation. 

Can you get to a $100k+ launch someday? Absolutely! But it may just take some time and some audience building first so play the long game! We promise it’s worth it.

For Those Who’ve Launched Before

So, let’s say you’ve launched this program before. Perfect. Take this calculator and work backward. Then take a look at what your launch list conversion rate was. 

If it was 3%, for example, make your good, better, and best goals 2%, 3%, and 4%. These are the numbers you can use to project your next launch revenue for this program. 

Of course, you want to increase your conversion rate. Everyone wants to grow. And everyone wants to make more money 🤑 But if your audience has grown since your last launch like if you have way more followers than before, maintaining your conversion rate should actually be your first goal. You want to make sure you’re impressing the same percentage of your audience. 

What to Do If Your Projections are Low

After taking a note of your projections, take a step back. Do your launch goals feel way lower? Don’t let this discourage you from launching! And don’t think it means you need to wait. This projection just sets you up to set realistic goals. 5 sales from a 400-person launch list is NOT a flopped launch! It’s fantastic! Trust me, these are the same percentages everyone else is working with 

If you run your numbers through the calculator, you’re projected to make 5 sales, still, be so proud of those 5 sales. Serve those 5 people like there’s no tomorrow! It’ll pay back tenfold. This is the perfect time to play the long game. It’ll give you longevity. You want to build a loyal following so you’re not just a passing fad. You want to be a classic, 

Serve your people, keep growing your audience and you can’t fail.

Ultimately, the most important thing is to grow your reach and your audience. How can you help as many people as possible on a consistent basis for free? Remember, this is about showing up not just to show up, but to provide value. Become irreplaceable to your audience. 

And how do you do that?

By being intentional. Be enthusiastic about your niche! For example, making 3 intentional, educational, or inspiring posts a week will serve you and your audience far better vs. 5 empty selfie posts just for the sake of posting. Want more Inspo? Check out our blog post about 4 social posts to keep your followers engaged.

By consistently showing up and sharing your gifts and expertise, you’re telling your audience that you mean business! They’ll take you more seriously, even if they just met you. They’ll follow you, check out your lead magnet, jump on your list, and BOOM! Congrats, you just grew your audience. 

Focus on just a little growth each day. Before you know it, it’ll be time to update your launch revenue calculator again.✨


Want to learn more about growing an engaged, ready-to-buy audience to set your next launch up for raving success? Join us for our new 6-week program, Build Your Audience Bootcamp.

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